𓂀 in re: the uma oracle · court record · block -

thoth · uma oracle court · records 2,692 · updated 2026-07-09

polymarket outsources truth to an oracle.
this records the judges.

every disputed polymarket outcome is decided by uma token-holders voting with wallets - and the payout follows their vote. per dispute: who voted, their weight, whether they matched the official outcome, and how concentrated the vote was. every record is hash-chained before it can age - it cannot be quietly rewritten.

resolved disputes
2,687
voter wallets
4,881
window
368d
chain records
2,692
updated
2026-07-09

latest disputes

all 2,687 →
most recent dvm resolutions, newest first

read this first

  1. on-chain facts only. this states how a wallet voted and whether it matched the official outcome. it never links a wallet to a real-world identity and never asserts fraud - those are conclusions this ledger does not draw.
  2. correctness is vs uma's own resolved price, not ground truth. a captured vote that resolves 'wrong' still scores 'correct' here. concentration and correctness together are the signal; neither alone is an accusation.
  3. the conflict-of-interest flag is not in this build. whether a voter also held a position in the market it ruled needs a cross-chain positions join - phase 2. the day-1 board is concentration + correctness.
  4. re-derive every number yourself. source is the public log stream of uma's votingv2 on ethereum mainnet; the aggregate json and the hash-chained ledger are downloadable below. trust the chain, not this site.

most contested

all 2,687 →
ranked by voters who voted against the resolved outcome
no.resolvedmarketvotersagainstagainst%top%outcome
00012026-04-17Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?123862050.1%4.4%no
00022026-04-17Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?123861849.9%4.4%no
00032025-12-06Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?149060340.5%5.5%yes
00042026-05-01Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?86847054.1%8.2%yes
00052026-04-29Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?54037268.9%15.5%yes
00062026-06-28Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?55236966.8%17.3%no
00072026-03-30Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?64334153.0%8.8%yes
00082025-12-24TikTok sale announced in 2025?78733642.7%10.7%yes
00092025-10-13Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?60032053.3%11.8%yes
00102026-06-28Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?55230254.7%17.3%no
00112026-06-20Will another candidate win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary55930053.7%16.1%no
00122026-06-26Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?50128957.7%17.2%no
00132026-06-26Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?50128957.7%17.2%no
00142026-01-05Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?74928938.6%10.7%no
00152026-01-05Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?75428838.2%10.7%no
00162026-04-03Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?62028646.1%8.9%no
00172026-01-05Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?74928638.2%10.7%no
00182026-04-03Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?62028546.0%8.9%no
00192026-03-30Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?64327142.1%8.8%yes
00202026-07-06Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?108927024.8%8.8%yes
00212026-01-05US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?74927036.0%10.8%no
00222026-03-14Will Khalil Mack play for New York Jets in 2026-27?58226946.2%8.9%no
00232026-06-26Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 22?50126552.9%17.2%no
00242026-06-26Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 22?50126252.3%17.2%yes
00252026-06-14Will Show D be the top global Netflix show this week?55725846.3%16.3%no

voter rap sheet

all 4,881 →
by weight; correctness over gradable disputes, vs uma's own resolved price
no.walletvotesgradedcorrectrateweight
00010xfc20..1e1c23981203119499.3%4339.0M
00020xd2a7..9f7f27041325130798.6%3991.3M
00030xb524..3715146567567499.9%3746.6M
00040x8e34..c97a147168267298.5%3287.0M
00050xc60a..fea0147468467498.5%3269.0M
00060x95cd..29b827151334131498.5%2769.7M
00070xfec2..04a525761269123697.4%2597.4M
00080x05d1..f8c426891316129898.6%2558.7M
00090x0afc..0b3827271340133099.3%2126.5M
00100x487a..253825211234119997.2%1667.6M
00110x8548..e67e26681317125395.1%1132.0M
00120x326c..420526671303128598.6%1122.7M
00130x6564..340c25191236121097.9%1115.8M
00140x66ca..225a27001322130398.6%1032.7M
00150x996d..aff198742140195.2%835.6M
00160xdb28..b80a24091144108294.6%757.1M
00170xf659..d48b27161332131698.8%749.3M
00180xbd9e..baa7173878377599.0%697.4M
00190x20ec..56c025811262124398.5%651.6M
00200xf002..bfb227121338132499.0%639.6M
00210x9928..8cee27081325131599.2%629.2M
00220x840b..946f24721187117198.7%611.2M
00230x4863..e44f23631170115298.5%592.6M
00240xbec3..0ff423171198119199.4%568.0M
00250xb731..579026181269124998.4%566.5M

method

source: the public log stream of uma's votingv2 contract on ethereum mainnet, 0x004395edb43efca9885cedad51ec9faf93bd34ac, read directly over rpc. each revealed vote (VoteRevealed: voter, price, numTokens) is joined to its request's official outcome (RequestResolved: price) on (identifier, time, ancillaryData).

correctness = |vote - resolved| ≤ 0.01. weight = numTokens / 1e18. concentration = the top wallet's share of a request's revealed weight. question titles resolve deterministically from the polygon oo side of each request.

the chain: disputes are appended once each to a hash-chained ledger in resolution order; each record carries the hash of the previous one. edit any past record and every hash after it breaks.